Train Routes

Introduction – This article is mostly for the USA but will have relevance for other countries. We are going to look at civil unrest and what can trigger it.

Definition of Civil Unrest – This is not a revolution or violent overthrow of the government. It is a breakdown of law and order. The symptoms of civil unrest follow: crowds gathering and engaging in violence such as starting fires, throwing rocks, destroying vehicles, attacking cars with motorists inside, marching outside of government buildings and acting in a disorderly and destructive fashion, crowds throwing rocks and other projectiles. Civil unrest is more than just unhappy people. It is when these unhappy people demonstrate their unhappiness with violence and destruction of property so as to send a signal to the government that they had better meet their wishes and fast. Civil unrest is not revolutionary behavior. Revolutionary behavior generally focuses sharply on specific targets; it is not random violence or destruction of property. Revolutionary behavior has a lot of let’s call it propaganda for lack of a better word. This is where the revolutionary forces tend to publish material and make speeches to support their political position and win over converts.

The people the revolutionary forces are working against generally try to counter this propaganda with their own propaganda. Revolutionary forces generally are trying to win the masses to their side so they will try to refrain from any random or indiscriminate violence. This sometimes gets forgotten as revolutions intensify and the revolutionaries resort to terrorism against those supporting the government they are trying to topple. This results in the people being fearful of the government and the revolutionaries, which becomes its own sort of nightmare. Revolutionary activities are generally timed and staged precisely, civil unrest tends to be very spontaneous. People participating in revolutions are generally trained to varying extents and highly motivated risking life and limb for their cause. Rioters are often drunk or on drugs and have little idea why they are rioting other than to loot. Civil unrest is frequently accompanied by looting of retail and wholesale stores and warehouses. People rioting will often destroy their own neighborhoods leaving themselves without water, power, shelter, food etc. People demonstrating peacefully with signs and chanting is not civil unrest.

Implications of Civil Unrest – Governments in Europe have been facing this recently. Governments fear this tremendously. If they do not respond they appear weak and the mobs get bolder and bolder eventually destroying the government and replacing it with chaos. If the government responds harshly they turn the people against the government even more. If people get killed and seriously hurt by the government, these people and their friends and families will always have resentment towards the government and this can have serious implications if there are enough of such people. If the government contains the riots to the areas where the rioters live, think the poorer sections of the cities, then the rioters will destroy their own neighborhoods only. This was the position the government took with the riots in the 1960’s and 1970’s.

If the rioters venture into the wealthier neighborhoods and go looting bloodshed will result. The wealthier people have guns as a rule and will shoot at the crowds if they were not able to get out before the trouble started. A lot of rioters will get shot. A lot of homes will be burned. Rioters will break into many homes resulting in murder, rape, fire, robbery, etc. If the rioters become armed from looting stores that sell guns or homes that have firearms then it can get very ugly. Sure two or three Apache attack helicopters can gun down thousands of people in the streets but that will change things in a big way if the government demonstrates a willingness to do this.

Trigger Points – When the people have their basic needs taken away they become agitated and civil unrest can set in. The things that push people are numerous and we will name some of them but in all likelihood a combination of things will be taking place at the same time making it harder for the people affected. It is the combination of these triggers that pushes people towards civil disobedience.

Eviction – When people lose their home by eviction as tenants of homeowners. After the foreclosure process the eviction process begins. When people are without income and homeless they will be prime candidates for civil unrest. They have nothing to lose. This is a serious trigger and is common.

No Job – This is more of a pre-trigger. They still may have a home and a car so they have a lot to lose and will be trying to play I hope it gets better versus rioting and looting. This leads to no utilities, no car, no phone, no Internet, no cable TV and all the other things people are accustomed to. Unemployment insurance is usually far from enough money but it can soften the blow a little. This is a soft trigger that leads to other more substantial triggers and is common.

No Medical Coverage – When people see they cannot get medical treatment without going to an emergency room for many hours they get volatile and ready for not nice demonstrations. This is a medium grade trigger and common.

No Car – When people lose their job they often fall behind on their car payments and then have their car repossessed. This in many cases ends the prospects for getting a job and they go down into a freefall with things going from bad to worse. This is a minor trigger but common.

No Food – Unlikely in USA. They can get free meals at shelters, groceries handouts etc. There are a lot of homeless people in USA, millions actually, but hungry people are rare. Hungry people are very hard to control. After 24 hours they are going crazy with hunger and will take whatever action they need to get food. Think about how they will react when they see their small children wasting away due to a lack of food. Homeless people are not so hard to control. They get absorbed in the daily hassles of street survival, which tends to occupy their time. This would be a massive trigger but unlikely.

Bank Closures – This will push many over the edge to break into disobedience to express their attitude towards the government. This sort of behavior can be overcome by reopening the banks but the damage can be massive until then. This is a big trigger and likely.

Hyperinflation – If the value of the dollar plunges then the people will be robbed of a major portion of their buying power. Lets say the dollar now buys about $0.75 in Euros. One dollar gets $0.75 Euro. If this goes to the point where one dollar buys $0.25 Euros people lost two thirds of their buying power form now, much more if one were to go back two years. When they see the impact of this and understand their standard of living dropped to that of a third world laborer they will not be happy about it. This is a big trigger and likely.

Seeing Riots in Media – This is the trigger or triggers. When they see riots then they are more willing to start or participate in one. Looting is productive and rewarding. Remember Hurricane Katrina and the looting. Even the police were looting in uniform. This is a trigger that has not yet occurred but is likely to occur in the future.

When Does Major Civil Unrest Occur – Generally in the hot summer months.

What Will the Government Do – Not sure? Use Hurricane Katrina for your model. By the time the government responded things were really bad. If there were one riot at a time the government would be major. They would take police action with all sorts of technology to break it up. If the people get brutalized then a deep hatred of the government will set in amongst those people who got hurt. They will be most unlikely to take a position of well I got what I deserved and now it is time to and be a good submissive citizen again. The government will most likely not have taken any action to remove or correct the triggers causing the riots. If riots break out at same time or close to same time in numerous cities then the government response will be weak and poorly orchestrated because their resources, command centers, supply reserves, troops, communications, transportation, food and medical facilities etc. will all be stretched very thin.

What to Do – If you live in a city likely to be subject to riots (see above triggers) pack a bailout backpack and leave it in the closet. Have emergency supplies for a few days in it. Have one for each family member. If the electricity goes you will need cash to buy anything so keep a supply on hand. Study various escape routes to get out of town. Decide on some likely places to retreat to. Consider securing your house with bars on windows and solid steel doors. This may prevent looting. If you are in a rural area more than one tank of gas from a major population center then you should be unaffected. When the rioting starts gangs may be driven out of the rioting area and go roving around looking to keep the looting and pillaging up. They would probably never go further than a tank of gas will go. Gas stations may be closed to control this very thing. Gas stations may shut out of fear on their own. Be vigilant and remember the media may do a new blackout on the events.

-Aurelia Masterson, www.panamalaw.org

Executive Summary – This data comes from USA today, not out of thin air. In the last year the USA took on 6.8 trillion dollars in more debt. The total is now 63.8 trillion dollars. This figure is four times what the average household in the USA owes on all their debts including mortgages, credit cards, student loans, car loans, etc. The amount of debt owed per household if we add in estimated debts other than what is owed to the fed we get an estimate of $682,000. If we run the interest on this at say 5%, which is a low estimate for sure, we get $34,000 a year and this is interest only with no repayment of principal.

If we ran the repayment of each household debt like a mortgage, say 30 years fully amortized at 5% we would get a monthly payment of $3661.12 which is $43,933.44 per year. After this the people need money for food, clothing, medical, transportation electric, heat, phones, education, etc. The point is there is no way that the people in the USA are ever going to pay this amount of indebtedness back without hyperinflation. Also bear in mind using a 5% interest figure is very low, a more real aggressive calculation would use a higher interest rate. So the stage is set for some form of economic disaster.

Discussion – There is no real way out of this mess for the USA. Borrowing and more spending is only going to drag it out for a very brief period of time. The world leaders know the USD is worthless. When the leaders of the world stop using and accepting the USD and want to get paid in other currencies then the US will have to convert their US dollars to other currencies. As they print more dollars, the exchange value of the dollar drops accordingly. Then hyperinflation sets in. This can mean gas is $12 a gallon, bread $8 a loaf.

When the hyperinflation really gets going then gas can be $45 a gallon. Savings get wiped out. More and more money gets printed. The federal debt gets repaid with cheaper money. Wages never keep up with inflation, never ever. This balances the books on paper. Now the USA would be in full third world status. The gov’t would impose currency controls and Americans would not be allowed to hold, pay or accept foreign currency in the USA. USA real estate would become a steal for foreigners if they did not mind living in a police state. Foreigners could come to the US and hire Americans paying them with cheap USD and then exporting the products for harder currencies.

Remember social security, retirement etc will be paid with these cheap dollars so USA people will be desperate fro work. Many of the non-productive government jobs will be gone altogether. The laid off workers who never really ever had to work in a productive job will be going crazy. The message from the police state will be work or starve. This is another reason why the police state must have a tight grip. People would still have their pensions and would be lucky if they could eat at a fast food burger joint a few times a month due to hyperinflation. Medical care will be a mess. Why? Did you ever consider the doctors leaving for greener pastures? Same for computer programmers, engineers, pharmacists, nurses, skilled and licensed medical equipment operators like MRI, respiratory therapists, physical therapists, architects, professional athletes, scientists, pilots, and other people who have transferable skills able to find work in other nations.

Those that worked for government in nonproductive jobs as bureaucrats are going to find that no one has need of them. The window for this to happen is not going to remain open much longer. The USA is so close to locking down their borders now, they could close the nation in hours, not days. Remember that once the USA locks down many Americans are going to overstay their tourist visas in other lands not wanting to return. The other nations will very shortly start requiring formal visas for Americans to visit. To shut the border all they have to do is impose exit visa requirements on the people leaving. This seems to be just right around the corner. One would need to file an exit visa application before leaving the USA. You would have to state the purpose of your trip. They would want assurances that you would be returning. This would be showing things like you own a house, land, businesses; you are leaving spouse and children behind etc. The USSR did this.

The USA does this in reverse for people seeking a visa to visit the USA so they are really quite good at it. If you cannot show a lot of reasons why you would return then you would not get the visa to leave. Before an exit visa system has any teeth the borders must first be locked down for exit and entrance. This they have already down. They even have checkpoints 100 miles inside the country near the borders. I do not know how 100 miles can be near a border. It should take one at least an hour and a half to drive 100 miles. If the USA does not shut down the country tight when the dollar starts to really drop then all their resources will leave. All the highly trained and educated people will be heading out. This will make it hard to find suitable skilled labor to run businesses on the soon coming greatly reduced wages.

Remember foreigners coming to the USA to start business and inject hard currency capital into the USA are not going to want to hear about equal opportunity employer, OSHA, Workmen’s compensation, discrimination for sex, race, religion age etc. These things have to go or the businesses won’t come. They will want to make money or will go elsewhere. If they do not go to exit visas people will depart from the USA with their cars (to Mexico and Canada), their boats, their airplanes, their precious metals and jewelry and of course their cash. None of this is in the best interest for the government so they will put a tight lid on this. The USA will have to change. People will not like the changes, thus the police state. Now there are other variables that might screw up the plans of the USA. Name one thing they have done right in the last 50 years? See what I mean. These would be their plans. What they actually accomplish will never be what they want. In any event when the USD drops the government will become more radical in their actions as a police state. This writer thinks there is a maximum of 12 months or so. Nations like China, Russia, Brazil, India and others are converting their USD holdings into productive resources. When this is over (12 months or so) there will not be a lot of demand for USD anymore. That is when the real trouble will start for the USD, this is nothing compared with what is to come.

Summary – The dollar has a doomed future. It is not going to make any real recoveries. Get out of it now while it is still worth something. It is 100% impossible to spend your way out of a recession caused by excessive debt like Obama is trying. Never happen. As you can see Obama has still not yet even got the falling of the economy to stop yet and this is because his approach is incorrect and the plunge may continue for some time, before it goes into free fall. The window to leave the USA with what you have is still open, take advantage of it.

Countries converting to police states leave the exit door open for a while as they are tightening their grip. They encourage educated politically minded people to leave. This is done subtly, not openly. They don’t want you there. They are dumbing down the future labor force and do not want dissidents around. The business environment goes bad first (already there). More and more non-productive jobs are created as the businesses fail and their productive jobs disappear (already there). Business owners get disgusted and fed up with regulations, taxes, increasing lawsuits, increasing bankruptcies, judges becoming more irrational, and police powers expanding (we are already here but not in the fullness yet). These educated aware people start to leave (we are already here but not yet in the fullness).

Socialism increases thus driving out more of those who understand what is going on because they know socialism never works and always results in a police state (already here). The last push comes from crime. The government starts to go easy on criminals. All the federal agents are protecting the government from you, not you from criminals. The agents run around putting people in jail for breaking regulatory statues, not for crimes against person or property where there is a real victim (already here). The criminals tend to not waste a lot of time and energy with the lower classes instead focusing on those with some assets (not yet here but crime will rise as the economy fails, always does).

The very wealthy are either part of the police state or gone by this point in time. Wealthy people travel internationally a lot. They are used to foreign cultures. It is easiest for them to go. People that stay in the USA are going to be more like the frog boiling in water, while those familiar with foreign lands will have a broad perspective and see the changes for what they really represent. Soon you will see criminals victimize you and are by and large not really brought to justice. Police just take reports, no efforts at apprehension. If you are seeing this you waited too long to get out. Now you might be able to still get out but your assets are probably not going with you.

The next step is a full third world corrupt law enforcement community as the enforcement arm of a full-blown corrupt and dishonest police state. The USA may never get this far. It may fall apart before which is the consensus from numerous experts. If it falls apart the Federal Reserve debt will be defaulted on. The banks will be gone. People will just own their homes. What happens to renters is a good question. Under these circumstances the USD will go the route of the confederate dollar after the south lost the war, completely worthless, as were their bonds. The stock market will also crash completely since the Federal Reserve drives it. Law and disorder is likely to prevail as states join together to form new nations. The unproductive sector of the economy will not have a home. The welfare state will be gone for many decades if not centuries. There is going to be a lot of gangs, and crime. Think the breakup of the USSR. People will be poor. Healthcare will be minimal if at all present. Expect some years of this.

The USA will bounce back much faster and stronger than the USSR since capitalism was foreign to the USSR and they had to figure it out on the fly. The problem is no one knows how hard the police state is going to fight to retain control when things get bad. I would say they would fight all the way, no limits. In any event the potential for some ugly years that are so bad people will suppress the memories for the rest of their life, are on the way. States rights and secession will only be a painless exit if the fed does not fight tooth and nail to retain control. Remember they never accept any blame for anything. They never make mistakes. Do you think Obama will just let the states go ahead and leave?